World-first study to develop early warning system for bipolar sufferers

A world-first Swinburne project will develop an early warning system for individuals with bipolar disorder, to help anticipate symptoms, manage mood changes, and increase their stability and independence.

Currently, bipolar disorder is managed by reacting to mood shifts after they have already begun. 

The groundbreaking ‘Tipping Point’ project will revolutionise this by developing a predictive algorithm of relapse risk based on subtle, often unseen signals embedded in daily activity and sleep measured by an actigraph (a wrist-worn movement sensor similar to a sports watch).

"One of the most challenging features of bipolar disorder for patients and clinicians is that we cannot predict when an individual might experience a new episode”, says lead researcher Swinburne Professor Greg Murray. 

"This sophisticated algorithm could be integrated directly into smart watches, providing low-cost, non-invasive, real-time and personalised alerts for impending mood episodes. Such an advance holds the potential for fewer disruptive hospitalisations and a significant improvement in overall quality of life for individuals.”

Maree Choi, a person with bipolar disorder and Clinical Associate at Swinburne, can speak to the impact of this project.

“There is no deeper pain than feeling as though you are unworthy of hope,” she says.

The Tipping Point project is a flagship initiative of Professor Murray's newly established BEAT Lab (Bipolar Etiology, Assessment, and Treatment Lab) and is one of three significant international projects on bipolar disorder currently underway at the lab.   

The international team of clinicians, researchers and people with lived experience of bipolar disorder has received $4.3 million from the UK Wellcome Trust to conduct Tipping Point Online, accessible studies will be conducted in Australia, New Zealand and India. The study is currently in recruitment and the team plans to finalise the relapse risk algorithm by 2029.   

Professor Murray says he hopes to give individuals with bipolar disorder an unprecedented level of insight and control over their health. 

“By understanding the intricate dance between sleep, activity, and mood, we could equip them with a powerful new tool to stay well.”