Swinburne tipping computer predicts Sydney Swans will win Grand Final

Wednesday 28 September 2016

Sydney and Western Bulldogs

Sydney to win? Image credit: @sydneyswans Instagram and @westernbulldogs Instagram

In summary

  • The Swinburne Computer has given Sydney a 57 per cent of winning the AFL grand final
  • In the 2016 season the Swinburne Computer has had a 72 per cent success rate
  • The Swinburne Computer has been tipping for 36 years 

Swinburne University of Technology’s football tipping computer has backed the Sydney Swans to win the Australian Football League (AFL) Grand Final by seven-points.

The Swinburne Computer has given Sydney a 57 per cent chance of winning, compared to the Western Bulldogs’ 43 per cent chance of taking home the premiership flag at the upcoming AFL Grand Final on 1 October.

How does the Swinburne Computer stack-up?

In the 2016 season the Swinburne Computer has had a 72 per cent success rate, slightly above its usual 68 per cent long-term average. This year it has accurately guessed 145 of the winners.

Compared to these prominent tipsters as part of The Age’s weekly competition, it’s performed fairly well.

  • Matthew Richardson on 150
  • Dennis Cometti on 150
  • Bill Shorten on 149
  • Samantha Lane on 146
  • Malcom Turnbull on 146
  • Cameron Ling on 140
  • Caroline Wilson on 140

The Swinburne Computer uses an adjustment system that’s similar to what is used in international chess rankings. It gives a rating for each team and each ground, and adjusts ratings accordingly each week to calculate its own AFL tips.

“It has been tipping for 36 years,” Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Stephen Clarke, says.

“Originally it was run on the IBM mainframe computer at Swinburne, but over time it was transferred to a desktop computer.”

The Computer has correctly predicted the last three grand final winners but Professor Clarke wouldn’t mind if it missed this year.

“Like many Melbournians, I am hoping the computers’ poor record in this year’s finals continues. On the bright side, the computer is giving Western Bulldogs a 43% chance which is more than we have given them in their last three finals this year.”